Sequential event prediction refers to a wide class of problems in which a set of initially hidden events are sequentially revealed. We apply our approach to an online grocery store recommender system, email recipient recommendation, and a novel application in the health event prediction domain. This leads to sequential event prediction algorithms involving a non-convex optimization problem. In recommender system applications, the observed sequence of events depends on user choices, which may be influenced by the recommendations, which are themselves tailored to the user’s choices. We show how specific choices within this approach lead to different sequential event prediction problems and algorithms. Our formalization of sequential event prediction draws on ideas from supervised ranking. Such applications arise in recommender systems, equipment maintenance, medical informatics, and in other domains. We focus on applications where the set of the past events has predictive power and not the specific order of those past events. A Memorandum submitted to the Statistical Research Group, Columbia University, April 1944.In sequential event prediction, we are given a “sequence database” of past event sequences to learn from, and we aim to predict the next event within a current event sequence. Q.C./R/19.Ībraham Wald, A General Method of Deriving the Operating Characteristics of any Sequential Probability Ratio Test. Stockman, A Method of Obtaining an Approximation for the Operating Characteristic of a Wald Sequential Probability Ratio Test Applied to a Binomial Distribution, (British) Ministry of Supply, Advisory Service on Statistical Method and Quality Control, Technical Report, Series ‘ R’ No. Barnard, M.A., Economy in Sampling with Reference to Engineering Experimentation (British) Ministry of Supply, Advisory Service on Statistical Method and Quality Control, Technical Report, Series ‘ R’ No. A Report submitted by the Statistical Research Group, Columbia University to the Applied Mathematics Panel, National Defense Research Committee, July 1944. Harold Freeman, Sequential Analysis of Statistical Data: Applications. A report submitted by the Statistical Research Group, Columbia University to the Applied Mathematics Panel, National Defense Research Committee, Sept. (1940).Ībraham Wald, Sequential Analysis of Statistical Data: Theory. Conf., Calcutta, Statistical Publishing Soc. Mahalanobis, “A sample survey of the acreage under jute in Bengal, with discussion on planning of experiments,” Proc. Birnbaum, “An inequality for Mill’s ratio”, Annals of Math. 12 (1941).Ībraham Wald, “On cumulative sums of random variables”, Annals of Math. Harold Hotelling, “Experimental determination of the maximum of a function”, Annals of Math. Walter Bartky, “Multiple sampling with constant probability”, Annals of Math. Romig, “A method of sampling inspection,” The Bell System Tech. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves. These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is continued until either the first or the second decision is made. Again on the basis of the first two trials one of the three decisions is made and if the third decision is reached a third trial is performed, etc. If the third decision is made, a second trial is performed. If the first or the second decision is made, the process is terminated. On the basis of the first trial, one of the three decisions mentioned above is made. Thus, such a test procedure is carried out sequentially. By a sequential test of a statistical hypothesis is meant any statistical test procedure which gives a specific rule, at any stage of the experiment (at the n-th trial for each integral value of n), for making one of the following three decisions: (1) to accept the hypothesis being tested (null hypothesis), (2) to reject the null hypothesis, (3) to continue the experiment by making an additional observation.
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